分享嘉宾：The Crypto Dog，推特知名分析师
导语：是不是总觉得踩不准行情，抄底抄在半山腰，一旦抛光他就张？开年躺赚行情都踏空，是你吗？是你吗？说的就是你！怎么办？Beep币扑重磅打造的线上对话币圈大咖AMA-Plan B第七期邀请推特行情预测大V The Crypto Dog 给你来场行情剧透，不要再错过吃肉的机会！
As we all know Dog has over 176,000 fans on twitter which is actually a big amount of fans for a crypto inﬂuencer. Let’s just rewind the time a little bit, How do you know blockchain or bitcoin and ﬁnally decided to get into this business ? What draws you into it ?
I was a nerd in high school when I discovered Bitcoin. It was 2011, I loved video games, coding, spinning up crappy websites, and designing things in Photoshop. My family couldn’t afford much, but one thing my mom made sure we had was a desktop computer with an internet connection. So, with not a whole lot else to do, I pretty much grew up on the internet. It was only natural that I’d bump into Bitcoin along the way.
I saved several summers’ worth of odd job spare change to build my dream computer. Using a Radeon 6970, I mined a few 50 BTC blocks. Of course, I sold almost all of them for $10 or less per coin. What I didn’t sell for cheap got goxxed in 2013. That was okay though, I probably would have sold long before $10k. So, my first experience with Bitcoin was pumping the electric bill as an adolescent side income. Thanks mom.
As a poor college student, I spent a little bit of my student loan into Bitcoin in 2015 (not much, but it got me back in the game). I continued to buy here and there for the coming years, sitting on it while I focused on school.
It wasn’t until late 2016 that it became really exciting again. When Bitcoin started climbing back to $1000, I knew we were going to all time highs and beyond. That’s when I started spending all of my extra hours reading everything I could about trading Bitcoin.
I meant to invite you earlier for the AMA because back then, everyone seemed to be terriﬁed about the big drop of bitcoin. And actually I was ganna ask you “it seemed to recover now and it will start to take off”, but crypto world is crazy, ot drops hard today again… So what’s your perspective towards to the bitcoin market now?
At this point I’m confident the lows of the bear market are confirmed. We have entered the bullish trend that will take us back to $20k and beyond. The golden cross is a healthy confirmation of this trend change. I would gladly see Bitcoin rest lower for a longer time, as I want to buy more, but I’m afraid we may not have much more time. Please, keep Bitcoin below 10,000 as long as possible!
The best tactic for investing in Bitcoin is to dollar cost average buy and hold, and now is an incredible time to be buying Bitcoin for long term. Put a little money in each month that you can afford, hold it for years from now.
How do you see that the 20k would be beofre the halving or after ?
After. I would be very surprised to see new all time highs before.
It seems people have this consensus that bitcoin will hit the target before May and drop hard after halving and then start climbing in 2021～2022. Do you believe it will follow it or surprise us ?
I actually think we will see the most growth after the halving, not before. The markets may surprise me, but I am looking for the most growth towards the end of this year, Q3-Q4.
When will be the new high time?
No sooner than the summer I would expect. Ideally price remains low for longer. But, I can see new highs before year end - this Fall/Winter. It would not surprise me.
What kind of indicators or index you would refer to for price prediction ? What’s the most common pitfalls beginning investor may fall into ?
I am more comfortable reading pure price action, as opposed to many indicators. That being said, I am a big fan of moving average indicators (like the golden cross) to confirm long-term trends.
The most common pitfalls for new investors are FOMO’ing into different positions often.
Traders will buy XRP and then see ETH pumping, so they sell XRP bottom and buy ETH top. Then ETH tanks and they sell again to re-buy XRP.
Slow down. Have a targeted plan for your trades. Use risk management have clear invalidation criteria for your trade idea.
Do not hold onto losing trades. Cut losers quick and look for new set ups. Don’t bag-hold an investment to 0.
Don’t become emotionally invested in an altcoin. Be fluid, be ready to exit and move on.
Analysts say ethereum and ripple seemed to be stronger than bitcoin right now. What price would you expect about them when bitcoin hits all time high ?
I agree with these analysts. I think this will be again the year of Ethereum and we will see Bitcoin dominance continue to fall. There are a lot of exciting developments across DeFi that will provide a powerful narrative for altcoin resurgence. As the markets are highly correlated, we will see other altcoins outside of Ethereum, like XRP, also shine. Personally I have been investing and trading in other protocols that I believe have a lot of room for growth including Tezos (XTZ) and Algorand (ALGO). Chainlink (LINK) is another strong performing altcoin that has and may continue to provide long opportunities.
The time has been changed, many exchanges strated to trade futures/options. compare with pump up the price and reduce the stock at the previou time, those big money can get profits by making futures, is there any possible that the spot price of BTC can beyond the historical high level? and why?
I do not believe derivatives prevent future price discovery.
Increased liquidity and trading vehicles is positive for the ecosystem as a whole, and has no effect on the underlying scarcity of Bitcoin.
There will only ever be 21m - futures contracts do not change spot math.
I do think we will see a continued trend of increased volume across derivatives, however. I expect overall derivatives volume in crypto to increase 10x over the next 1-2 years.
I am very bullish on crypto derivatives and have been spending a lot of my time and energy working with the first physically delivered Bitcoin futures exchange - CoinFLEX.
They are similar to BAKKT and provide physical delivery of Bitcoin at contract settlement, but do not require stringent requirements to trade on their platform.
CoinFLEX also has the lowest fees on BTC futures trading…
How do you think of other platforms like ftx or binance ?
I am a big fan of Binance for spot trading - I do almost all of my spot trading there.
I have respect for CZ and rest of the team. I had a great time meeting him and HeYi in Singapore last year.
The derivatives wars are heating up and everyone is getting involved.
I spent a little time with Sam in Hong Kong last year and I also hold deep respect for them and am curious to watch as Alameda develops FTX.
In terms of exchanges, Fcoin exchange, once a flame in 2018, went down several days ago and claimed to be in
debt with over 7,000 to 13,000 BTCs. Meanwhile, Binance announced a system maintenance last night. How do you think of exchanges keeping troubled lately ? As an OG in this market, what kind of exchanges you think will most likely to survive? Any particular qualities ?
There is nothing new here. There will always be long-term thinkers that build sustainable business that last, like Binance, and there will always be those who are looking to get rich quick. Despite increased regulatory engagement, we are still very much in the early, “Wild West” stage of crypto. I have to say, it was clever for Zhang Jian to “foreclose” on Fcoin at this time when the Chinese government is busy handling the situation with COVID-19. If there was a time to exit scam, it is now. If this happened last October November, I think he would be facing much more scrutiny.
Exchanges that will last are the ones that are not only moving fast and thinking ahead, but are also close to and engaged with their community.
Another hot-debated event is that Voice released its Beta test this week and some may claim it’s just like another version of Steemit and may has the same ending as it. What’s your opinion and how do you see decentralized social media especially with Jack Dorsey’s advocate?
I think this is a very difficult space to tackle and I am skeptical of Dan Larimer’s ability to succeed in this arena. All of the value in social media rests on network effect - a platform needs users. The use of blockchain in social media must be frictionless to be viable, but even a frictionless blockchain application is not enough to capture value. The platform has to provide merit above traditional competitors to onboard users. Tackling Twitter, Weibo, etc., is no simple feat.
What kind of blocckain use cases you are looking into?
就在昨天，我和来自Amber AI的TianTian讨论了他们正在开发的一个新项目：www.keeperdao.com。 结合了有趣的游戏理论和DeFi套利，值得关注。
Right now I am most excited about DeFi. Everything is still very early and experimental - as we saw with the BZX flash loan crisis.
But everyday I find out about a new project that seems to be pushing the DeFi space forward.
Just yesterday I was talking with TianTian from Amber AI about a new project they’re developing: www.keeperdao.com
It’s an interesting take on game theory and DeFi arbitrage, worth keeping an eye on them.
What’s your plan for 2020 ?
I have several businesses I am working on both inside and outside of crypto. I love to trade and invest in projects that are interesting to me, but I believe it’s important to diversify income streams. Before I started working in cryptocurrency full-time, I studied pharmacy and pharmaceutics professionally in a doctorate program. I built a start-up around better, healthy living through supplements and nootropics (brain vitamins). Currently we ship internationally, but only have online materials in English. https://shop.trybetterbrand.com/bettermind
I am partnering with an accelerator in Hong Kong to focus on marketing and distribution.
I work very closely with an accelerator focused on emerging industries across esports, venture capital, health and wellness, and of course blockchain. I co-founded my health and wellness startup with them and I am directing their blockchain efforts. We are expanding our blockchain services into Asia and building a Chinese incubator to bring Western projects to the East, helping with services across funding, branding and design, tokenomy, marketing strategy and community building, and so on. I am moving to Asia this year and will be splitting most of my time between Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Los Angeles.
And of course, outside of entrepreneurial pursuits and trading, I will be buying Bitcoin every month this year!
Have you ever been disappointed in crypto and thought about leaving ?
There have definitely been times I didn’t know if I was making the right decision.
I left my doctorate program and my opportunity at six-figure career in pharmaceutics to go all in crypto in 2018…
2018 was such a rough year. But I believed in Bitcoin and Blockchain long term and knew there was opportunity here. I decided to stay the course and muscle through the bear market. I am very glad I did.
Who is your most respected people in crypto world and non-crypto world?
In crypto world: Haha of course I have to say Satoshi. Powerful of him to build this all and then disappear to allow Bitcoin to be truly decentralized.
I also have to shout out Ross Ulbricht. He is a very controversial figure - he built the Silk Road. But this was the very first widespread use case for Bitcoin and a decentralized Blockchain technology.
Whether or not we agree with the free market he created, we can all agree he did a lot to push Bitcoin into real world use.
In the non crypto world… I have spent too much time now in crypto 😦 I can’t think of anyone outside right now.
What’s most ridiculous thing happened in crypto ?
答：就我个人经历而言的话，2011年6月，我在MT Gox上交易，当时有人黑了一个非常早期的比特币账户：Jed Mccaleb。
但因为有取款限制，黑客无法取出所有比特币。所以，为了规避这个问题，黑客卖掉了 Jed Mccaleb的大部分比特币，把价格降到了几便士。
In my personal experience… In June 2011 I was trading on MT Gox and at that time someone hacked one of the very early Bitcoin adopter’s accounts: Jed Mccaleb.
There was a withdrawal limit so the hacker could not remove all of his Bitcoin
So, to circumnavigate this problem, the hacker sold much of Jed Mccaleb’s Bitcoin and crashed the price down to just pennies.
I watched Bitcoin fall from $10 to $0.01 in front of my eyes
This was one of my first experiences trading Bitcoin…
After experiencing that, you still decided to devote yourself into crypto?
Haha I didn’t for many years. I still focused on my career in medicine at the time.
What’s the taboo as a trader in your understanding?
I think the most important thing is to understand the difference between investing and trading.
Investing into Bitcoin (and some may argue altcoins) over the long term is a good idea for anyone.
But trading is high risk and not a good idea for everyone. It can take years to become a profitable trader.
I don’t want to discourage anyone from trading, but I recommend separating into two mindsets:
Focus most of your capital into investing. Play with just a little money for trading until you have honed your skills.
How do you respond to those anaylsts opening payed lessons?
95% scam, 5% hidden gems run by honest and professional people.
It is extremely difficult for a new person to discern between what is scam and what is not.
So in general I do not recommend them.
Which coin got you the best ROI ever ?
Probably $DOGE. 2017 was a good time…
Do you believe bitcoin is manipulated ?
Of course. But it’s not how you might imagine.
There is not one group of people who are manipulating Bitcoin. There are many many different organizations and funds all vying for control of BTC at different times.
It is not easy to manipulate BTC, it takes so much capital these days. No one can completely control Bitcoin.
With a lot of money you can maybe change the price of Bitcoin a little bit for a few minutes, maybe an hour. But medium and long term trend is dictated by the vastness of the markets. No single person controls that.
Bitcoin is decentralized enough and the marketcap is so large that we are in an era where I have little worry about manipulation.
But yes - if you 100X long Arthur is going to liquidate you !
Name 5 cryptos you would definitely pay attention to ? ( No investment advice)
答：除了比特币的话，$ETH, $XTZ, $ALGO, $FLEX (I have a bag), and $HNS
HNS是结合了区块链技术的一个有趣的域名注册系统-值得花时间研究一下。我第一次是从 Primitive 资本的 Dovey Wan & Eric那里听说的。
Outside of Bitcoin: $ETH, $XTZ, $ALGO, $FLEX (I have a bag), and $HNS
HNS is an interesting take on domain name registry system with Blockchain - worth some research. I first heard about them from Dovey Wan & Eric at Primitive Ventures.
HNS and ENS are similar but slightly different approach. I’m afraid I’m not expert enough to go into the intricacies and differences between the two.
What would you suggest to read or to watch for a beginning investor？
答：有一本书，我不确定是否有中文版，叫：Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets ，作者是John Murphy。初学者必读，很棒的写作和技术分析
There is a book, I’m not sure if available in Chinese, called:
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy.
Excellent writing on technical analysis and must read for any beginner.
问：为什么会叫Cypto Dog这个名字？ 你的中国朋友有给你过建议嘛？
Who gave you this name? You sure your chinese friends have any suggestion for you on this one?
Everyone tells me I need a new name for China. I love dogs - who doesn’t? I am allergic to cats.